Venezuela Oil Investment in 2026: $76 Billion Expected, the Contracts, Tax Terms, Licenses and Risks
Venezuela expects nearly $76 billion of oil and gas investment over the next five years, according to Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, who said on October 17, 2026 that 61 agreements are signed and 44 more are being negotiated under the new hydrocarbons framework. That is about $15 billion a year, if spread evenly (our own arithmetic). Foreign companies can invest as minority partners in mixed companies or as private operators under new contracts, but they work under U.S. sanctions licenses and face real risks. Data as of November 2, 2026. This page is information, not investment advice.
Venezuela oil investment at a glance
| Expected investment | Nearly $76 billion over five years (government) |
| Agreements | 61 signed, 44 under negotiation (as of October 17) |
| Royalty | Up to 30% of extracted volume |
| Comprehensive tax | Up to 15% of gross income |
| Income tax | 50%, reducible |
| Contract terms | Private contracts and mixed companies of 25 years (plus up to 15) |
| U.S. license for new deals | GL 49B (contingent contracts) |
How much investment is Venezuela expecting?
Rodríguez said at the close of an energy conference in Maracaibo, with more than 150 domestic and international companies, that Venezuela expects almost $76 billion in investment in oil and gas over five years, per World Oil. Reuters reports it as oil investment; World Oil says oil and gas without splitting it. She projected more than 324,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs. These are government expectations, not signed money: no source I read breaks the figure down by year or project.
How can a foreign company invest in Venezuelan oil?
Under the January 2026 reform of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, per Baker McKenzie, there are two routes:
- As a minority partner in a mixed company (where the State holds more than 50%). The Ministry of Hydrocarbons can authorize the partner to sell production, hold bank accounts abroad and run the technical operation. Mixed companies last 25 years, extendable by up to 15, and no longer need a National Assembly law to be created.
- As a private operator under a contract with a company wholly owned by the State. The operator must be domiciled in Venezuela and show technical and financial capacity, and it works at its own cost and risk. It is paid with a percentage of the audited production. These contracts are exempt from the public procurement law.
One type of contract already in use is the Productive Participation Contract (CPP): for example, GeoPark’s 25-year CPP for the Bare Block took effect on November 2 (the news). More on the law itself: the hydrocarbons law (in Spanish).
What are the fiscal terms?
Per Baker McKenzie: royalty of up to 30% of the extracted volume, set project by project; a comprehensive hydrocarbons tax of up to 15% of gross income; and income tax of 50%, which the Ministry of Finance can reduce when needed to keep a contract economically balanced. The reform also repealed the 2006 “shadow tax” and the 2013 windfall tax. Wood Mackenzie calculated that at maximum rates the State takes the equivalent of about 45% of gross revenue, which it called high compared with competing markets, and that executive discretion over reductions is a concern for investors.
What U.S. licenses apply to a new investment?
U.S. sanctions are still in force. For new investment the key license is GL 49B, which authorizes negotiating and signing contingent contracts for new investment in oil, gas, petrochemicals and electricity, provided that performance depends on a separate OFAC authorization. It excludes persons in Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and China. GL 50C authorizes oil and gas operations of the entities listed in its annex, with payments going into U.S. Treasury accounts; I did not read the annex. The full map is in Venezuela sanctions.
Who has invested so far?
- Chevron: more than $7 billion over five years to take output to about 600,000 b/d (Chevron in Venezuela).
- GeoPark: the Bare Block CPP, with the company funding 100% of approved capital.
- NABEP: the August deal over 17 fields, with up to $100 billion of planned investment and a goal of 500,000 b/d by end-2028 from about 200,000 b/d, per World Oil (the deal explained).
- Eni, Repsol, Shell and others: oil companies in Venezuela.
- Exxon is waiting: its CEO said on about October 30 that it wants the new rules in force, not only announced, before committing.
For listed companies with exposure, see Venezuela oil stocks.
What are the risks?
- Sanctions licenses can change with U.S. policy.
- Unreliable power, aging equipment, limited oilfield services and a shortage of experienced workers (World Oil).
- Wariness over nationalizations and legal uncertainty: Exxon’s assets were nationalized twice, the last time in 2007.
- Government discretion over royalty and tax reductions (Wood Mackenzie).
- Debt and creditor claims on Venezuelan assets (Venezuela’s debt).
- Weak export months: shipments fell 25% in October (the news).
What is not known
- How the $76 billion splits between oil and gas, by year and by project.
- The terms of the 61 signed agreements, which have not been published.
- Whether OFAC will authorize execution of the contingent contracts at scale.
- Whether Exxon and other majors will commit.
- The final fiscal terms each project gets: royalties and taxes are set project by project by the Ministry.