Gold Slips to $4,045 as Goldman Cuts Its 2026 Forecast

Gold closed Friday, November 6, 2026 at about $4,045 an ounce, down 1.02%, after the U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, far more than the roughly 65,000 expected, and traders raised their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The same day, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650. Data as of November 9, 2026.

What is known

• Jobs, official: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports +165,000 jobs in October, against an average of 48,000 a month over the prior 12 months. Unemployment was 4.1%. August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000.
• Market reaction (Rio Times via FinanceFeeds): spot gold fell 1.02% to $4,045; the dollar index rose 0.72% to 102.28 and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.87%. December Comex gold futures settled at $4,079.50, down $34 (Investing.com).
• Fed odds: about 80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting, up from 67% the day before, per CME FedWatch as reported by Scotsman Guide. Other outlets cited 77–78%.
• Goldman Sachs (Nov. 6): year-end 2026 gold target cut to $4,150 (from $4,650) and year-end 2027 to $4,800 (from $5,400), because of the Fed’s hawkish turn. It still calls central-bank demand the main support: it assumes 60 tonnes a month in 2026–2027 versus 17 before 2022, and estimates current purchases at 85 tonnes a month. In a scenario with more Fed hikes it sees $4,660 by end-2027.
• State Street, Monthly Gold Monitor (data to Oct. 31): gold fell 6.8% in October, silver 18.7% and bitcoin 7.4%; the September–October correction was 13.1%. Gold sat about 28.5% below its late-January record of $5,417. Drivers it names: a Fed on a tightening path, a stronger dollar (about +3% since early September) and Treasury yields. It keeps a 12-month base range of $4,500–5,250 (60% probability) and a bear range of $3,750–4,500 (35%). Central-bank demand is up 6% year on year in 2026 and Chinese retail buying 67%; U.S. gold ETFs lost $0.65 billion in October but remain up $3.1 billion for the year.
• Context: State Street’s figure implies gold was near $3,870 on October 31, so Friday’s $4,045 is still about 4% above that (our calculation).

What is not known

• October inflation. The consumer price index comes out Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, per the BLS schedule cited by FinanceFeeds; no source we read gives a consensus forecast. A hot number would raise hike odds.
• What the Fed will do. December 8–9 is the decision; odds are market estimates, not a decision.
• Monday’s price. Early reports on November 9 placed gold near $4,100; we could not confirm a settlement.
• Whether central banks keep buying at that pace. Goldman’s 60 tonnes a month is an assumption.

Why it matters

Gold is trading on rates, not fear: stronger jobs and a stronger dollar pull it down, while central banks and China keep a floor under it. Forecasts differ widely: Goldman $4,150 by year-end, State Street a base range above $4,500 over 12 months. None of them is a promise. This is not investment advice: if you are weighing coins, bars or a retirement account, read how to invest in gold, the gold IRA rules and scams and where to sell gold, and check the live price per gram. Venezuela’s own reserves are covered in Venezuela gold reserves.