Will Venezuelan Oil Lower U.S. Gas Prices? The Data
Not so far. The U.S. imported 701,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude oil in July 2026 — three and a half times January’s 200,000 and the most since mid-2017, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Over the same stretch, gasoline got more expensive: a gallon of regular cost $4.28 on October 19, 2026, $1.27 more than a year earlier. Gas prices follow the world price of crude, which makes up about half of what you pay at the pump, and Venezuela’s barrels are a small part of world supply. Where Venezuelan oil does matter is for Gulf Coast refiners, which were built to process it, and for Canada, whose heavy oil now has a competitor.
Does the U.S. import oil from Venezuela?
Yes, and much more than a year ago. U.S. crude imports from Venezuela stopped in 2019, after sanctions on the state oil company PDVSA, and restarted in 2023 under Chevron’s licenses, the EIA explains. In 2026 they climbed every month:
| Month (2026) | Barrels a day from Venezuela |
|---|---|
| January | 200,000 |
| February | 231,000 |
| March | 373,000 |
| April | 429,000 |
| May | 471,000 |
| June | 630,000 |
| July | 701,000 |
Source: EIA, monthly imports. 2025 averaged about 140,000 barrels a day.
That is still a minority share. In July 2026 the U.S. imported 6.22 million barrels a day of crude in total: Venezuela supplied about 11% and Canada about 67% (4.16 million).
Will Venezuelan oil lower gas prices?
The data so far says no, for three reasons:
- Crude is priced globally. “The largest component of the retail price of gasoline is the cost of crude oil,” says the EIA — about 51% of the price in 2025, with refining, distribution and taxes making up the rest. And that crude price is set by the world market: West Texas Intermediate averaged $97.31 a barrel in September 2026 and Brent $114.16, per the EIA. An extra 500,000 barrels a day into the U.S. does not move that much.
- It replaces other imports more than it adds supply. Venezuelan heavy crude is competing with Canadian and Mexican heavy crude for the same Gulf Coast refineries (see below), so the total amount of crude reaching U.S. refineries changes less than the Venezuela figure suggests.
- The pump price came in the opposite direction. While Venezuelan imports tripled, the national average for regular gasoline rose from about $3.02 a year earlier to $4.28.
What could change it: a much larger rise in Venezuela’s output, enough to matter on the world market. That depends on investment and on deals like the U.S.-Venezuela oil deal, whose contract has not been published.
Which U.S. refineries use Venezuelan oil?
Mostly refineries on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Venezuelan oil is heavy crude, “a variety with a peanut butter-like consistency that is more costly to extract and refine than Texas’ light sweet grade,” as The Texas Tribune describes it, and the Gulf Coast has the equipment to process it. “The refineries along the Gulf Coast, they were built thinking of Venezuelan oil,” Lorena Moscardelli, director of the University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, told the Tribune.
- Valero, based in San Antonio, said in early 2026 that Venezuelan crude would make up “a large part of our heavy diet.”
- CITGO, the U.S. subsidiary of PDVSA, runs three refineries with more than 800,000 barrels a day of capacity designed for heavy oil, per the EIA; their ownership is changing through a court-ordered sale.
Will U.S. energy costs ease thanks to Venezuela?
That is the expectation behind the U.S.-Venezuela deals: more oil from a country with about a fifth of its reserves in fields now open to U.S.-linked companies, sold to refineries built for it. The case for relief: more heavy crude competing for Gulf Coast refiners, wider discounts on competing barrels, and a U.S. government with a stake in the output. The case against, so far: gas prices are set by the world price of crude, which stayed high in 2026, and Venezuela’s extra barrels mostly replaced Canadian and Mexican ones. Relief at the pump would need Venezuela’s output to grow enough to matter worldwide — the number to watch each month in Venezuela oil production.
Will Venezuelan oil help the U.S. economy?
The clearest gains go to refiners and to the U.S. government:
- Refiners get more choice of heavy crude. “Increased supplies from the South American nation would create more competition for crude being sold to U.S. refiners,” Bloomberg reported in January. More competition among sellers tends to mean cheaper heavy crude for the buyers.
- Texas, home to much of that refining, would “play an outsized role” in any recovery of Venezuela’s oil industry, the Tribune notes.
- The U.S. government holds, through the Pentagon, 35% of NABEP, the company that got 17 Venezuelan oil fields in the August 2026 deal, and the right to buy 20% of its output at cost. Details: Venezuela oil deal explained.
For drivers, the effect on the pump price has not shown up yet, as the numbers above show.
How does Venezuelan oil affect Canada?
Canada is the largest supplier of heavy crude to Gulf Coast refiners, and Venezuelan barrels compete with it directly. When the U.S. announced in January 2026 that it would sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, the discount on Canadian heavy crude widened: Western Canadian Select went to $14.45 a barrel below WTI, from $13.90 the day before, per Bloomberg. Mexico is losing ground too: its new Dos Bocas refinery could cut its heavy Maya crude exports to the Gulf Coast by 200,000 to 250,000 barrels a day, according to S&P Global, cited by the Tribune — space Venezuelan and Canadian oil can fill.
How will Venezuela affect oil stocks?
There is no listed Venezuelan oil stock: PDVSA is state-owned and NABEP is private. Companies with direct exposure — Chevron, Eni, Repsol, Shell, oilfield-service firms and ConocoPhillips’ arbitration claim — are in Venezuela oil stocks, with sources. Refiners that buy Venezuelan crude, such as Valero, gain from cheaper heavy oil but also depend on fuel demand and margins. This is not investment advice.
What could change
- Sanctions and licenses can be reversed. U.S. imports went to zero in 2019 and came back only through licenses.
- The NABEP contract is not public, and its legal basis is disputed. See the legal doubts.
- Venezuela’s output has limits. Years of underinvestment and shortages of diluent, which heavy oil needs, held back past recoveries, per the EIA. Current output and forecasts: Venezuela oil production.
- World prices dominate. Whatever Venezuela does, a shock elsewhere moves U.S. gas prices more.
What is not known
- Monthly import data lag: the EIA’s figures run through July 2026; August and later are not yet published.
- How much refiners pass on any savings from cheaper heavy crude to fuel prices.
- The full terms of the U.S.-Venezuela deal, which have not been released.